Predictions

Win probabilities from power ratings, season efficiency and home court

Coming up: Round 10

When (UTC)	Game	Win probability	Expected margin	Jev AI	Polymarket
Wed 4 Nov, 19:45	MADv PAN	MAD 68% 32% PAN	MAD +5.0	MAD 63%	PAN 59%
Thu 5 Nov, 17:15	ISTv PRS	IST 66% 34% PRS	IST +4.1	IST 63%	IST 71%
Thu 5 Nov, 18:00	FENv BAS	FEN 87% 13% BAS	FEN +12.3	FEN 87%	FEN 76%
Thu 5 Nov, 18:45	HTAv BAR	HTA 69% 31% BAR	HTA +4.9	HTA 66%	HTA 65%
Thu 5 Nov, 19:00	ASVv MUN	ASV 64% 36% MUN	ASV +3.3	ASV 64%	ASV 54%
Thu 5 Nov, 19:30	MILv VAL	MIL 34% 66% VAL	VAL +4.2	VAL 73%	VAL 63%
Fri 6 Nov, 17:00	BESv ZAL	BES 53% 47% ZAL	BES +0.6	ZAL 61%	ZAL 52%
Fri 6 Nov, 19:15	OLYv RED	OLY 73% 27% RED	OLY +6.8	OLY 68%	OLY 70%
Fri 6 Nov, 19:30	VIRv DUB	VIR 49% 51% DUB	even	DUB 61%	VIR 52%
Fri 6 Nov, 19:45	PARv TEL	PAR 73% 27% TEL	PAR +6.2	PAR 69%	PAR 61%

Track record this season

Record

22–8

73% of winners picked

Ratings alone

67%

same games, power ratings only

Log loss

0.562

lower is better · coin flip 0.693

Full prediction history, with Jev and Polymarket →

Game	Call	Result
BAR v VAL	BAR 54%	98–94	✓
VIR v BES	VIR 62%	101–103	✗
OLY v MIL	OLY 90%	84–78	✓
ASV v BAS	ASV 66%	94–79	✓
ZAL v PAR

Eurostepper vs AI

Eurostepper model

22–8

73% correct · log loss 0.562 · Brier 0.192

Jev (TypeSafe)

19–11

63% correct · log loss 0.589 · Brier 0.206

Game	Result	Eurostepper	Jev
BAR v VAL	98–94	BAR 54% ✓	VAL 59% ✗
VIR v BES	101–103	VIR 62% ✗	VIR 62% ✗
OLY v MIL	84–78	OLY 90% ✓	OLY 85% ✓
ASV v BAS	94–79	ASV 66% ✓	ASV 67% ✓
ZAL v PAR	87–80	ZAL 75% ✓

Against the market

Eurostepper model

22–8

73% correct · log loss 0.562 · Brier 0.192

Jev AI

19–11

63% correct · log loss 0.589 · Brier 0.206

Polymarket

20–10

67% correct · log loss 0.567 · Brier 0.192

Eurostepper picked a different winner from the market in 4 of 30 games and was right 3 times. Jev picked a different winner from the market in 7 of 30 games and was right 3 times.

Polymarket is a prediction market where a share in the winning team pays $1, so a price of 77¢ means traders give that team about a 77% chance. Each game is graded at the last price saved before tip-off (midway between the bid and the ask), on the same games for all three. The market already prices in what bettors know, injuries included, so matching its log loss is hard and beating it is the real test.

Paper trading

Each model trades two paper accounts on Polymarket's prices, at tip-off. The value rule buys 100 shares of the side the model rates above the market price (home if the model gives the home team a higher chance than the market, away if lower). The pick rule simply backs the team the model thinks will win. A share pays $1 if its team wins, so buying at 77¢ makes 23¢ a share when right and loses 77¢ when wrong.

Value rule: buy what the market underprices

Eurostepper

+$235.50

18–12 · staked $1532.22 · fees $32.23 · return +15.0%

Jev AI

−$10.18

17–13 · staked $1677.98 · fees $32.16 · return −0.6%

Pick rule: back the model's favourite

Eurostepper

+$218.08

22–8 · staked $1949.88 · fees $31.99 · return +11.0%

Jev AI

−$18.95

19–11 · staked $1886.88 · fees $32.03 · return −1.0%

EurostepperJev AIsolid: value rule · dashed: backing the pick

How accurate is the model?

Home team always wins62.1%

Power ratings only66.1%

Eurostepper model66.5%

Winners picked in 2,620 games, each season predicted by a model trained only on the seasons before it. When the model called a game at 70% or more, the favourite won 77% of 1,032 times.

Season	Games	Correct	Log loss
2018-19	260	73.1%	0.549
2019-20	252	69.0%	0.580
2020-21	328	64.3%	0.662
2021-22	299	67.2%

Game	Polymarket, home	Eurostepper, value	Eurostepper, pick	Jev AI, value	Jev AI, pick	Result
VIR v BES	64%	62% → BES 37¢ +$61.83	→ VIR 64¢ −$65.15	62% → BES 37¢ +$61.83	→ VIR 64¢ −$65.15	101–103
BAR v VAL	56%	54% → VAL 44¢ −$45.23	→ BAR 57¢ +$41.77	41% → VAL 44¢ −$45.23	→ VAL 44¢ −$45.23	98–94
OLY v MIL	77%	90% → OLY 77.6¢ +$21.56	→ OLY 77.6¢ +$21.56	85% → OLY 77.6¢ +$21.56	→ OLY 77.6¢ +$21.56	84–78
ASV v BAS	63%	66% → ASV 63¢ +$35.83	→ ASV 63¢ +$35.83	67% → ASV 63¢ +$35.83	→ ASV 63¢ +$35.83	94–79
ZAL v PAR	73%	75% → ZAL 73.9¢ +$25.14	→ ZAL 73.9¢ +$25.14	70% → PAR 28¢ −$29.01	→ ZAL 73.9¢ +$25.14	87–80
IST v PAN	33%	34% → IST 33¢ +$65.89	→ PAN 68¢ −$69.09	24% → PAN 68¢ −$69.09	→ PAN 68¢ −$69.09	83–68
DUB v HTA	56%	54% → HTA 45¢ −$46.24	→ DUB 57¢ +$41.77	35% → HTA 45¢ −$46.24	→ HTA 45¢ −$46.24	97–83
MAD v FEN	69%	68% → FEN 32¢ −$33.09	→ MAD 69¢ +$29.93	70% → MAD 69¢ +$29.93	→ MAD 69¢ +$29.93	95–76
TEL v PRS	61%	59% → PRS 40¢ +$58.80	→ TEL 62¢ −$63.18	47% → PRS 40¢ +$58.80	→ PRS 40¢ +$58.80	94–99
RED v MUN	75%	82% → RED 76¢ +$23.09	→ RED 76¢ +$23.09	77% → RED 76¢ +$23.09	→ RED 76¢ +$23.09	103–73
VIR v ZAL	53%	55% → VIR 53¢ −$54.25	→ VIR 53¢ −$54.25	60% → VIR 53¢ −$54.25	→ VIR 53¢ −$54.25	74–91
ASV v PAR	48%	46% → PAR 53¢ −$54.25	→ PAR 53¢ −$54.25	33% → PAR 53¢ −$54.25	→ PAR 53¢ −$54.25	82–75
HTA v IST	72%	77% → HTA 72¢ +$26.99	→ HTA 72¢ +$26.99	75% → HTA 72¢ +$26.99	→ HTA 72¢ +$26.99	118–88
BES v OLY	45%	38% → OLY 56¢ +$42.77	→ OLY 56¢ +$42.77	27% → OLY 56¢ +$42.77	→ OLY 56¢ +$42.77	73–81
BAS v MAD	22%	31% → BAS 22¢ −$22.86	→ MAD 79¢ +$20.17	21% → MAD 79¢ +$20.17	→ MAD 79¢ +$20.17	86–104
VAL v FEN	49%	64% → VAL 49¢ +$49.75	→ VAL 49¢ +$49.75	43% → FEN 52¢ −$53.25	→ FEN 52¢ −$53.25	86–78
PAN v MIL	86%	89% → PAN 87¢ +$12.43	→ PAN 87¢ +$12.43	87% → PAN 87¢ +$12.43	→ PAN 87¢ +$12.43	80–75
MUN v BAR	53%	49% → BAR 48¢ +$50.75	→ BAR 48¢ +$50.75	36% → BAR 48¢ +$50.75	→ BAR 48¢ +$50.75	84–88
RED v TEL	70%	80% → RED 70¢ +$28.95	→ RED 70¢ +$28.95	76% → RED 70¢ +$28.95	→ RED 70¢ +$28.95	100–78
DUB v PRS	79%	78% → PRS 22¢ +$77.14	→ DUB 79.4¢ −$80.23	80% → DUB 79.4¢ −$80.23	→ DUB 79.4¢ −$80.23	93–99
PRS v VAL	38%	41% → PRS 38¢ −$39.18	→ VAL 63¢ +$35.83	29% → VAL 63¢ +$35.83	→ VAL 63¢ +$35.83	93–104
OLY v FEN	55%	72% → OLY 55¢ −$56.24	→ OLY 55¢ −$56.24	65% → OLY 55¢ −$56.24	→ OLY 55¢ −$56.24	61–64
ZAL v ASV	77%	80% → ZAL 77¢ +$22.11	→ ZAL 77¢ +$22.11	64% → ASV 24¢ −$24.91	→ ZAL 77¢ +$22.11	105–85
PAR v RED	51%	52% → PAR 51¢ +$47.75	→ PAR 51¢ +$47.75	33% → RED 50¢ −$51.25	→ RED 50¢ −$51.25	85–82
MIL v BAR	52%	48% → BAR 49¢ +$49.75	→ BAR 49¢ +$49.75	21% → BAR 49¢ +$49.75	→ BAR 49¢ +$49.75	81–89
PAN v BAS	92%	90% → BAS 9¢ −$9.41	→ PAN 92¢ +$7.63	87% → BAS 9¢ −$9.41	→ PAN 92¢ +$7.63	85–79
TEL v MAD	38%	42% → TEL 38.8¢ −$39.94	→ MAD 63¢ +$35.83	25% → MAD 63¢ +$35.83	→ MAD 63¢ +$35.83	99–113
MUN v DUB	47%	56% → MUN 47¢ −$48.25	→ MUN 47¢ −$48.25	35% → DUB 54¢ +$44.76	→ DUB 54¢ +$44.76	91–107
IST v BES	63%	60% → BES 38¢ −$39.18	→ IST 63¢ +$35.83	39% → BES 38¢ −$39.18	→ BES 38¢ −$39.18	89–80
HTA v VIR	75%	76% → HTA 76¢ +$23.09	→ HTA 76¢ +$23.09	100% → HTA 76¢ +$23.09	→ HTA 76¢ +$23.09	90–81

Next trades, at today's prices

Game	Polymarket, home	Eurostepper	Jev AI	When (UTC)
MAD v PAN	42%	68% → MAD · pick MAD	63% → MAD · pick MAD	Wed 4 Nov, 19:45
IST v PRS	71%spread 13¢	66% → PRS · pick IST	63% → PRS · pick IST	Thu 5 Nov, 17:15
FEN v BAS	76%spread 43¢	87% → FEN · pick FEN	87% → FEN · pick FEN	Thu 5 Nov, 18:00
HTA v BAR	65%spread 14¢	69% → HTA · pick HTA	66% → HTA · pick HTA	Thu 5 Nov, 18:45
ASV v MUN	54%spread 14¢	64% → ASV · pick ASV	64% → ASV · pick ASV	Thu 5 Nov, 19:00
MIL v VAL	38%	34% → VAL · pick VAL	27% → VAL · pick VAL	Thu 5 Nov, 19:30
BES v ZAL	48%spread 12¢	53% → BES · pick BES	39% → ZAL · pick ZAL	Fri 6 Nov, 17:00
OLY v RED	70%spread 14¢	73% → OLY · pick OLY	68% → RED · pick OLY	Fri 6 Nov, 19:15
VIR v DUB	52%spread 73¢	49% → DUB · pick DUB	39% → DUB · pick DUB	Fri 6 Nov, 19:30
PAR v TEL	61%spread 14¢	73% → PAR · pick PAR	69% → PAR · pick PAR	Fri 6 Nov, 19:45

Predictions

Coming up: Round 10

Track record this season

Eurostepper vs AI

Against the market

Paper trading

Value rule: buy what the market underprices

Pick rule: back the model's favourite

How accurate is the model?

Next trades, at today's prices

Calibration